BART Metro: 2030 and Beyond

Travel patterns are changing, and it is essential for BART to be responsive to these trends and to continuously update our plans for mid-term, and long-term improvements. The BART Metro 2030 and Beyond study evaluated future service ideas that account for exciting upgrades that are currently underway or planned at BART. The study considered possible new service concepts that could provide more options for riders, and evaluated them under two potential ridership demand scenarios. The study developed a list of improvements that would support implementation of those service concepts[1] in the mid- and long-term. These projects would leverage large scale investments currently advancing and will be implemented by 2030 such as expanding our fleet with new rail cars, upgrading infrastructure to expand transbay capacity, and bringing on a state-of-the-art Communications Based Train Control system that will allow us to run trains closer together and more frequently.     

The study also complement our Link21 Program- a longer term planning effort to add a second transbay rail crossing and other projects to improve transit options across the 21-county mega region. The BART Metro 2030 and Beyond Study identified projects and improvements that can be implemented before Link21 to better serve our riders and attract new riders. 

By better matching BART service with anticipated regional travel demand, the study and resulting projects help implement Plan Bay Area 2050, to improve access to jobs, school, shopping, and recreation for all communities, while expanding equitable opportunities and reducing greenhouse gases. 

BART was awarded a Caltrans grant to update the BART service vision given significant forecast future growth, changes to ridership travel patterns stemmed by the Bay Area’s severe housing shortage, and the BART capacity upgrades planned for this decade. It is also critical for BART to rethink service plans in response to the pandemic and our efforts to meet the changing needs of the region. 

The project milestones included:  

Public Outreach Round 1 Complete: February 2022 

Scenario Development: July 2022 

Simulation and Scenario Analysis and Evaluation: November 2022 

Public Outreach Round 2: November 2022 

Final Report and Briefing Book: December 2022 

We kicked off the BART Metro 2030 and Beyond Study with outreach and a survey in February 2022 to hear from our riders and potential riders about ways to improve our routes and schedules in the future. The results from our February 2022 survey are summarized below:  

• Prioritizing Potential Improvements - Priorities vary by Frequency of Ridership   

  • Frequent BART riders value increased service during weekday commute and evening time periods  

  • Relatively infrequent riders value increased Saturday service  

  • Increased weekday midday frequency and quicker transfers are relatively low priorities  

• Frequency vs. Direct Service - Preference Depends on Frequency of Service   

  • Direct service is preferred when the wait time is 10 minutes (vs. 5-minute service with a transfer)  

  • When direct service requires a 15-min wait, preference shifts to more frequent service with a transfer  

• Transferring Between BART Trains - Willing to Wait Up To 9 Minutes   

  • Most respondents are willing to wait up to nine minutes to transfer between trains; relatively few will wait 10+ minutes  

  • Some respondents don’t make certain trips on BART because they would require a transfer  

  • The most common reason stated for foregoing trips due to transfer is having to wait too long for the connecting train   

• Peak vs. Off-peak Service   

  • Majority of respondents from BART’s Rider Database (relatively recent BART riders who tend to ride on weekdays for commute purposes) prefer 7-minute peak/20-minute off-peak service vs. 15-minute service at all times  

  • Majority of Outreach respondents (i.e. via social media and more likely to be weekend riders) prefer 15-minute service at all times vs. 7-minute peak/20-min off-peak 

In November 2022, we conducted a second round of outreach to get feedback via an online survey on two new service concepts that the Public hasn’t seen before - Enhanced East Bay and Enhanced Evening Core Service (see figures below):

The results from our November 2022 survey are summarized below:  

• Overall enthusiastic response to the outreach with over 5,800 completed surveys.
• Both service concepts were very well-received, with pluralities, if not majorities, saying it would help them get where they need to go better and that they would definitely or probably ride BART more often if these concepts were implemented.
• While both concepts were well-liked, the Enhanced Core Service concept consistently tested better in terms of improving the ability to get to one’s destination and in increasing the frequency of ridership.
• Low-income, frequent riders and younger riders consistently had more positive responses to both service concepts.
• Riders who use BART between 4am and 6am also consistently indicated that the Enhanced East Bay service concept would make it easier for them to get where they need to go and increase the likelihood of ridership.

Background

In 2013, BART completed a study to examine a potential re-conception of BART's service plans to accommodate growing ridership demands. The study, the Sustainable Communities Operations Analysis Study (SCOA), proposed improvements needed for BART to maintain its quality of service and evaluated various capital improvements and service plan scenarios to determine which would best meet the goals of improving operational efficiency, achieving financial stability, and reducing GHG emissions.  

The 2013 study was prepared in parallel with the Metropolitan Transportation Commission’s first Sustainable Communities Strategy, Plan Bay Area, which established a land use and transportation blueprint for the region and was adopted by the MTC Commission in 2013. To better serve the regional land use vision, the study recommended several service changes and capital improvements that have subsequently been implemented, such as short-turning trains on the Antioch-SFO+Millbrae line during peak periods before they reach the end of the line to increase the number of trains in the core of the system.  

In SCOA, BART identified its "Metro Core" – cities and areas where BART provides current service and where BART can be competitive for all types of trips throughout the day. The cities in the Metro Core have relatively higher density, more riders, lower household auto ownership rates, and walkable environments, among other factors. The 2013 SCOA determined the Metro Core area as between Daly City and Richmond, MacArthur and Bay Fair stations, encapsulating both San Francisco and Oakland, as well as surrounding cities. 

For members of the public interested in the project or wish to inquire more on the subject, please email Daniel Wu at [email protected].